Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa9d…9ca7 other 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized +$1 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%36W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$13
14 days−$25
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$119
crypto 13% +$36
sports 10% +$49
world 1% −$7
economics 1% +$3
finance 0% −$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -17.5% -25.4% 27% 25% -14.1%
≤30d 138 +0.0% -9.5% 26% 24% -13.6%
≤90d 138 +0.0% -9.5% 26% 24% -13.6%
all 138 +0.0% -9.5% 26% 24% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 24% -13.6%
10% -18.2% 24% -21.9%
15% -26.1% 21% -29.5%
20% -33.3% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses36 / 102
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions38
Markets (closed)138 / 180
History coverage31d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $64 $76 +$12 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $29 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-31%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 7¢ 10¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+46%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 24¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+118%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 17¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+459%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? No 76¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $19 −$15 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$26 +256%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$18 -89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 $0 -29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$5 +94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 −$2 -60%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$11 +560%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -90%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$4 +129%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 22 $2 +$3 +127%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $4 −$3 -63%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$54 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$17 +130%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 15h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 16h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 19h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 22¢ $9 27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.17 · official $267.17 (match) · 487 history records