Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa9b…e8e3 crypto 536 markets active 5d ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (217 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,964 (-48%) realized −$3,964 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate24%240W / 774L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day216.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (217 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 724 -34.6% -40.8% 20% 10% -33.7%
≤30d 1014 -26.5% -33.5% 24% 10% -25.9%
≤90d 1014 -26.5% -33.5% 24% 10% -25.9%
all 1014 -26.5% -33.5% 24% 10% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover216.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.5% 10% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -39.9% 5% -33.0%
15% -45.7% 4% -39.5%
20% -51.0% 3% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,964
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses240 / 774
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1014 / 536
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day216.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1014 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$6 -136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$7 +3450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +948%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +950%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$5 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records