Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa99…92b6 weather 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%65W / 5L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$51
14 days−$30
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$29
world 3% +$9
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.7% -14.7% 83% 0% -16.2%
≤30d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 68 -0.1% -9.6% 93% 1% -9.1%
all 70 -0.0% -9.5% 93% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.0%
10% -18.2% 1% -17.7%
15% -26.1% 1% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses65 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage109d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $145 −$58 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $141 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $141 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $136 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $131 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $130 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $123 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $120 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $118 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 30? May 31 $116 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $111 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on May 29? May 29 $111 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $111 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $110 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 27? May 26 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25? May 25 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 23? May 23 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 22? May 22 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 18? May 20 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 15? May 15 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 14? May 14 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 13? May 13 $118 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 13? May 12 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $116 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 12? May 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11? May 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 10? May 10 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 9? May 09 $114 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 8? May 08 $113 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 8? May 08 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 7? May 07 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 6? May 06 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 5? May 05 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 4? May 04 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 2? May 02 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 1? May 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 30? Apr 30 $94 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 29? Apr 29 $90 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $90 42m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $90 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $89 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $88 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $88 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $88 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 59¢ $88 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $145 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $145 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $141 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $142 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $141 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $140 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $136 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $137 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $136 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $136 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? BUY No 96¢ $131 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $130 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $131 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $130 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $129 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $123 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $125 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $124 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $122 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $120 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $120 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $120 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $119 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.25 · official $105.29 (match) · 144 history records