Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AA 0xaa99…dbbf world 367 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 123d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$34,634 (+8%) realized +$33,743 · open +$891
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%203W / 125L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$1,121per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$19,327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$757
7 days+$3,194
14 days+$4,996
30 days+$10,604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$11,013
other 17% +$7,362
politics 13% +$1,234
sports 8% +$257
crypto 5% +$3,420
tech 4% +$2,707
economics 1% +$917
finance 0% +$319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.3% -1.1% 67% 50% +9.0%
≤30d 95 +22.8% +11.1% 58% 42% +1.0%
≤90d 254 +12.6% +1.9% 59% 43% -2.6%
all 328 +14.2% +3.3% 62% 42% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 42% -3.0%
10% -6.6% 31% -12.2%
15% ← realistic here -15.6% 26% -20.7%
20% -23.9% 20% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$991) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$208 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$19,327
Realized+$33,743
Unrealized+$891
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses203 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions40
Markets (closed)328 / 367
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$1,121
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 89¢ 98¢ $4,572 $4,991 +$418 (+9%)
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $1,732 $1,881 +$149 (+9%)
Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 85¢ 94¢ $1,478 $1,619 +$140 (+9%)
Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 87¢ 96¢ $986 $1,084 +$98 (+10%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? No 87¢ 98¢ $929 $1,049 +$120 (+13%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 74¢ 99¢ $742 $1,003 +$261 (+35%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $888 $1,000 +$113 (+13%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $720 $815 +$95 (+13%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $538 $617 +$79 (+15%)
Will Elsa Pinto win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? No 59¢ 88¢ $400 $594 +$194 (+48%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No 71¢ 100¢ $351 $492 +$142 (+40%)
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? No 57¢ 80¢ $340 $477 +$137 (+40%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 71¢ 75¢ $444 $471 +$27 (+6%)
Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 83¢ 94¢ $388 $439 +$51 (+13%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $424 $372 −$52 (-12%)
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027? No 44¢ 74¢ $202 $337 +$136 (+67%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $568 $285 −$283 (-50%)
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? No 16¢ 80¢ $50 $243 +$194 (+391%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? No 40¢ 37¢ $252 $232 −$20 (-8%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $378 $195 −$182 (-48%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $178 $187 +$9 (+5%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? No 70¢ 90¢ $139 $180 +$40 (+29%)
Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026? No 57¢ 55¢ $133 $128 −$5 (-4%)
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? No 86¢ 95¢ $111 $123 +$11 (+10%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $105 $121 +$15 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 23 $1,323 +$207 +16%
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Jun 23 $198 −$81 -41%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 23 $1,565 +$275 +18%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 23 $424 +$356 +84%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $1,621 +$33 +2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 21 $116 −$69 -60%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 21 $232 −$43 -18%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $228 +$156 +68%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4,344 +$1,556 +36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,429 +$13 +1%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 19 $441 +$562 +127%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $602 +$278 +46%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 19 $107 +$14 +14%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $804 −$280 -35%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $348 −$348 -100%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $468 +$359 +77%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $224 −$9 -4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $229 −$165 -72%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $200 −$64 -32%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? Jun 17 $340 +$260 +76%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 17 $180 +$47 +26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $406 +$30 +7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 17 $184 +$100 +55%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $180 −$5 -3%
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 16 $61 +$16 +26%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $202 −$80 -40%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $93 +$88 +95%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $420 −$40 -10%
Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m Jun 15 $2,728 −$65 -2%
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? Jun 15 $337 +$89 +26%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $157 +$83 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11,199 +$543 +5%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $1,290 +$557 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2,172 −$126 -6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $46 +$40 +87%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $117 +$164 +140%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $534 −$132 -25%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1,009 +$375 +37%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 12 $1,147 −$111 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $152 −$24 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3,009 +$399 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $363 −$131 -36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2,114 +$47 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $2,412 +$203 +8%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $146 −$106 -72%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $67 −$4 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $47 58m
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential e BUY No 59¢ $82 1h
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential e BUY Yes 58¢ $29 1h
Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026? BUY No 57¢ $135 1h
Will Elsa Pinto win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential electi BUY No 59¢ $407 1h
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,530 8h
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,316 8h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? SELL No 39¢ $118 10h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY No 62¢ $198 10h
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States SELL No 98¢ $69 19h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1,840 25h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 77¢ $331 25h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 78¢ $449 25h
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States SELL No 98¢ $39 25h
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States SELL No 98¢ $48 29h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 32h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 32h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 32h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 32h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 33h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 33h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $32 33h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 33h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $142 33h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 34h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $405 34h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,327.37 · official $19,327.13 (match) · 3500 history records