Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaa98…90bb sports 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,579 (-4%) realized −$12,598 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate54%94W / 79L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,000per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Fees−$1,653est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$301
7 days−$3,084
14 days−$2,714
30 days−$9,487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 71% −$3,462
sports 24% −$2,750
politics 3% −$3,274
other 1% −$241
crypto 1% −$647
world 0% +$16
weather 0% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -12.2% -20.6% 44% 22% -18.9%
≤30d 54 -10.9% -19.4% 46% 17% -17.4%
≤90d 173 -1.6% -10.9% 54% 19% -12.2%
all 173 -1.6% -10.9% 54% 19% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 19% -12.2%
10% -19.5% 10% -20.6%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 8% -28.3%
20% -34.4% 5% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$2,631) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$319 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$12,598
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses94 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,653
Open positions2
Markets (closed)173 / 175
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$2,000
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 17¢ 19¢ $211 $230 +$20 (+9%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Up 57¢ 51¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $3,638 +$100 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,205 +$84 +7%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $976 +$38 +4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $630 +$45 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $1,007 −$2 -0%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $701 +$15 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $330 +$15 +4%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 15 $1,875 −$4 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 13 $2,282 −$27 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $7,341 −$66 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 11 $39 −$25 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $448 −$434 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $240 +$218 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $349 −$344 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $96 −$94 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $98 +$102 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $312 +$275 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $477 −$460 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $239 −$230 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $258 +$242 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $496 +$402 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $229 −$222 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,477 −$753 -51%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $4,820 −$1,863 -39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 10 $3,644 −$415 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $11,988 −$341 -3%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $2,359 +$29 +1%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $228 +$4 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 5? Jun 06 $653 +$90 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $2,847 +$295 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4? Jun 04 $601 −$13 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2,889 +$721 +25%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $1,503 −$822 -55%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 30 $3,981 +$109 +3%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 29 $143 −$45 -32%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 0.5 May 28 $44 +$9 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $2,888 +$223 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 28 $45 −$2 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $2,072 −$92 -4%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $207 −$20 -10%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during C May 27 $32 −$18 -55%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $484 +$34 +7%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $1,093 −$658 -60%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $6,757 −$3,181 -47%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5 May 23 $36 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $5,045 −$276 -6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $7,167 −$1,861 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 57¢ $6 0m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 49¢ $70 2m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 64¢ $4 8m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 66¢ $4 11m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 61¢ $4 11m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 60¢ $4 12m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 55¢ $68 14m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 49¢ $51 17m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $336 19m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 50¢ $8 30m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 50¢ $54 31m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $445 32m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 60¢ $115 35m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 59¢ $121 36m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 61¢ $7 36m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 64¢ $3 46m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 63¢ $374 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 66¢ $401 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 70¢ $310 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 67¢ $9 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.50 · official $235.90 (match) · 3500 history records