Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa98…6d5e crypto 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$253 (-7%) realized −$277 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%69W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$113
14 days+$110
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$440
other 28% +$69
sports 3% −$17
world 1% −$37
weather 1% −$21
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 50% +8.3%
≤30d 24 -25.1% -32.3% 42% 42% +5.4%
≤90d 98 -40.2% -45.9% 37% 34% -8.1%
all 210 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 31% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 31% -24.6%
10% -46.7% 26% -31.8%
15% -51.9% 21% -38.4%
20% -56.6% 15% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized−$277
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses69 / 141
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)210 / 221
History coverage139d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $159 $181 +$22 (+14%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+3%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$25 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $36 +$27 +75%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$10 +24%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $6 +$4 +71%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 +$20 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 +$4 +22%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $39 +$56 +146%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$18 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $84 +$28 +33%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22? May 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 16 $9 −$6 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 16 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 16 $11 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 16 $13 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 15 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 15 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 15 $2 +$4 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 15 $3 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $46 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY $3 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $91 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $66 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 69¢ $63 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 38¢ $36 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY $3 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 35h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 39h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes $1 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $78 39h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland w SELL 97¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.03 · official $353.03 · 596 history records