Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AA 0xaa98…4a57 crypto 134 markets active 503d ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$105,484 (+20%) realized +$105,484 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate67%90W / 44L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$3,847per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$79,539
politics 34% +$7,484
other 10% +$17,036
sports 3% +$1,808
world 0% −$312
tech 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 134 +18.6% +7.3% 67% 54% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.3% 54% +9.0%
10% ← realistic here -3.0% 44% -1.4%
15% -12.4% 33% -11.0%
20% -21.0% 27% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$2,883) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,540 vs −$753 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.18 per $1 lost it wins $4.18
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$105,484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses90 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage447d
Avg bet$3,847
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jan 21 $7 +$6 +89%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jan 21 $246 +$20 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 21 $704 +$826 +117%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 21 $2,150 +$2,850 +133%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 21 $28,836 +$24,969 +87%
Dogecoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $19 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin up in Q1 2025? Apr 02 $356 +$708 +199%
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? Feb 03 $96 +$3 +4%
Will USD0++ dip below $0.50 before February? Feb 03 $123 +$2 +1%
RASMR vs. Threadguy Feb 03 $1,161 −$160 -14%
Total crypto market cap over $4 trillion on Jan 20? Jan 22 $2,643 −$2,628 -99%
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? Jan 21 $63 +$1 +2%
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address? Jan 20 $6,271 +$401 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 13 $2,911 −$2,911 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Jan 13 $4,100 −$4,100 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000.00 by March 31? Jan 13 $3,611 −$3,611 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Jan 07 $7,922 +$676 +8%
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? Jan 01 $560 +$254 +45%
Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024? Jan 01 $700 −$700 -100%
OpenSea token >1 billion a week after launch? Jan 01 $844 −$17 -2%
$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024? Jan 01 $458 +$421 +92%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 01 $2,270 +$798 +35%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 01 $6,774 +$1,552 +23%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 01 $9,546 +$443 +5%
Will Ripple hit in $4.00 in December? Jan 01 $255 +$170 +67%
Will Ethereum hit $4,300.00 in December? Jan 01 $2,778 +$2,778 +100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? Jan 01 $6,900 +$3,100 +45%
Will Ripple hit in $1.50 in December? Jan 01 $11,263 +$3,118 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? Jan 01 $16,533 +$9,022 +55%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December? Jan 01 $38,309 +$13,102 +34%
Will Solana hit $200 in December? Dec 19 $2,666 −$2,666 -100%
Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024? Dec 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Dec 15 $3,563 −$580 -16%
WIll Ansem Knock out Bitboy? Dec 07 $0 $0 -100%
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night Dec 07 $12,045 +$1,822 +15%
Will $HAWK FDV be $30,000,000 or more one day after launch? Dec 06 $4,967 +$8,771 +177%
Will $HAWK FDV be below $10,000,000 one day after launch? Dec 05 $195 +$26 +13%
Will $Mog be listed first on Coinbase? Dec 04 $731 −$731 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.80 before December? Dec 01 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 before December? Dec 01 $22 +$22 +100%
Will Berachain launch a token in November? Dec 01 $99 +$26 +26%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.70 before December? Dec 01 $200 +$70 +35%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.60 before December? Dec 01 $193 +$98 +51%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.90 before December? Dec 01 $1,125 +$115 +10%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.55 before December? Dec 01 $1,056 +$1,062 +101%
Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 in November? Dec 01 $5,141 +$180 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Dec 01 $4,359 +$1,732 +40%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 01 $9,350 +$1,916 +20%
Will Dogecoin reach $1 before December? Dec 01 $15,421 +$1,455 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in November? Dec 01 $18,007 +$11,703 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 46¢ $273 503d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 46¢ $431 503d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $3 511d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $3 512d
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? BUY No 40¢ $2,222 513d
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? BUY No 40¢ $2,222 513d
Dogecoin all time high by March 31? BUY No 70¢ $12 514d
Dogecoin all time high by March 31? BUY No 70¢ $7 514d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $567 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $951 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $8 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $4 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $14 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $2 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $26 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $4 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $43 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $1 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $10 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $1 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $432 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $3 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $8 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $17 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $8 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $31 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $13 516d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY No 43¢ $8 516d
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address? BUY No 94¢ $6,271 517d
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? BUY No 96¢ $96 517d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2639 history records