Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa98…8325 other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$14
politics 23% −$8
sports 20% −$5
crypto 14% $0
world 4% −$1
economics 4% −$3
finance 3% +$3
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 4 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 84 -0.3% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.7%
all 112 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 96
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage109d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $61 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $63 −$1 -2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $171 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $504 −$2 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $63 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $177 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $198 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 06 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $53 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 04 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 04 $108 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 03 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $277 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 02 $67 −$1 -2%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $117 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $60 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $153 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $175 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $359 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $169 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $171 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $294 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 15 $111 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $61 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $61 5h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $53 7d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $53 7d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 14d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $45 15d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $62 22d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $63 22d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $60 35d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 35d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $60 47d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $61 47d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $46 47d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 47d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $46 47d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 48d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $54 48d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $55 48d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $62 48d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 95¢ $63 48d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 48d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 48d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 48d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 49d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $46 49d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $46 49d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $47 49d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $47 49d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $5 49d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $5 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 422 history records