Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa98…6e3f crypto 1251 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$336 (+1%) realized +$336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate76%945W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$103
14 days+$237
30 days+$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$156
other 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -3.7% -12.9% 34% 33% +1.4%
≤30d 511 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 52% -3.3%
≤90d 1251 -0.0% -9.5% 76% 30% -9.1%
all 1251 -0.0% -9.5% 76% 30% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 30% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 22% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 17% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 13% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses945 / 306
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1251 / 1251
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1251 Trades
no open positions (151 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$23 +430%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records