Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaa98…271f crypto 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%106W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$12
other 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 108 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 108 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses106 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage78d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $106 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 15? Jun 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 13? Jun 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? Jun 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 6? Jun 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 5? Jun 04 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 3? Jun 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 2? Jun 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 30 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 30 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 30? May 29 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 29? May 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 28? May 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 27? May 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 25 $103 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 May 18-24? May 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 18-24? May 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 23 $103 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 23? May 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on May 22? May 21 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 21? May 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 21? May 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on May 20? May 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on May 19? May 18 $102 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 17? May 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? May 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 16? May 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 16? May 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 15? May 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 14? May 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 14? May 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 on May 12? May 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 on May 12? May 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 on May 11? May 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 12? May 11 $101 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $106 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 25h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $106 29h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $106 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $106 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $106 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $17 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $89 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $89 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $52 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $36 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $17 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $17 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $88 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $27 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $25 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $25 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $25 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $81 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $81 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $105 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $105 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $105 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.82 · official $105.82 (match) · 275 history records