Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa97…946f sports 1020 markets active 3h ago coverage 36d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+1%) realized +$55 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate74%747W / 258L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day62.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days−$18
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$19
other 17% +$43
world 4% $0
politics 3% +$2
crypto 3% −$13
tech 2% +$3
finance 1% +$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 +2.5% -7.3% 81% 49% -9.1%
≤30d 942 +1.0% -8.7% 74% 44% -9.3%
≤90d 1005 +0.9% -8.7% 74% 44% -8.4%
all 1005 +0.9% -8.7% 74% 44% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 44% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 23% -17.1%
15% -25.4% 13% -25.1%
20% -32.7% 7% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses747 / 258
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1005 / 1020
History coverage36d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day62.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1005 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 95¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 83¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 37¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
ITF Blois: Jenny Lim vs Sofya Lansere Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +29%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 81¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $1 5h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 94¢ $1 5h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva BUY Gustavo Heide 81¢ $1 5h
ITF Blois: Jenny Lim vs Sofya Lansere BUY Sofya Lansere 71¢ $1 5h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 92¢ $1 5h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 86¢ $1 7h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 70¢ $1 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 98¢ $1 8h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 82¢ $1 8h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 79¢ $1 8h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 89¢ $1 8h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 78¢ $1 8h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 97¢ $1 8h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $1 12h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 74¢ $1 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1 12h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $1 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $1 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.17 · official $45.19 (match) · 2963 history records