Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa96…6969 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.9% +4.9% 62% 62% +45.0%
≤30d 8 +15.9% +4.9% 62% 62% +45.0%
≤90d 8 +15.9% +4.9% 62% 62% +45.0%
all 8 +15.9% +4.9% 62% 62% +45.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.9% 62% +45.0%
10% ← realistic here -5.2% 62% +31.1%
15% -14.3% 50% +18.4%
20% -22.7% 38% +6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$5 · ×8.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.04 per $1 lost it wins $14.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$111 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $84 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$73 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$8 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $176 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records