Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa96…981d other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+4%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% $0
world 37% −$1
politics 12% $0
sports 8% +$26
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 24 +6.4% -3.7% 42% 4% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 4% -6.0%
10% -13.0% 4% -15.0%
15% -21.4% 4% -23.2%
20% -29.1% 4% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×6.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.55 per $1 lost it wins $7.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage477d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $86 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $16 −$2 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $28 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $49 +$3 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $42 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will George Simion win by over 18%? May 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Apr 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $42 $0 +0%
Norfolk State vs. Florida Mar 23 $41 +$1 +2%
Blues vs. Capitals Mar 21 $16 +$25 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $6 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $41 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $2 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $43 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $45 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $14 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $12 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $3 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $1 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $27 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $28 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $48 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $1 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $0 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.36 · official $39.36 (match) · 82 history records