trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 50% | 50% | -1.9% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +50.3% | +36.0% | 71% | 57% | -6.6% |
| all | 13 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 46% | 31% | -29.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 31% | -29.7% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 31% | -36.4% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 23% | -42.5% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 23% | -48.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 70¢ | 84¢ | $250 | $297 | +$47 (+19%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 76¢ | 76¢ | $250 | $248 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 72¢ | 72¢ | $250 | $248 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 76¢ | 76¢ | $244 | $243 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | May 28 | $294 | +$75 | +26% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 28 | $206 | −$33 | -16% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 02 | $29 | +$39 | +135% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 02 | $28 | +$47 | +168% |
| Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | May 02 | $91 | +$124 | +136% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | May 01 | $264 | −$250 | -95% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | May 01 | $7,020 | +$255 | +4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | Mar 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? | Mar 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? | Mar 13 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? | Nov 21 | $6,999 | −$5,993 | -86% |
| Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? | Nov 19 | $1,001 | $0 | -0% |
| Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? | Nov 12 | $9,488 | +$92 | +1% |