Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa91…3ff5 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$7
other 15% +$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -1.5% -10.8% 25% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 12 -1.5% -10.8% 25% 0% -10.9%
all 29 -0.6% -10.1% 59% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 47¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $32 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $26 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $87 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $18 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $44 −$3 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $48 −$2 -4%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times April 4 - 11? Apr 07 $1 $0 -30%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $15 $0 +3%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 15 $13 +$1 +9%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $28 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $27 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $21 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $26 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $17 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $17 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $40 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.56 · official $39.20 (match) · 78 history records