Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa8f…86b8 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate80%32W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$20
world 3% −$13
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +3.7% -6.2% 93% 17% -7.5%
≤30d 40 -7.0% -15.9% 80% 25% -9.2%
≤90d 40 -7.0% -15.9% 80% 25% -9.2%
all 40 -7.0% -15.9% 80% 25% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 25% -9.2%
10% -23.9% 12% -17.9%
15% -31.3% 5% -25.8%
20% -38.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses32 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $7 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $20 −$13 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 10h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $4 10h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records