Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa8f…0a52 crypto 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%118W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$16
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 119 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 119 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×338.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×39987.23 per $1 lost it wins $39987.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses118 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage90d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 28? Jun 27 $126 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? Jun 25 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 24? Jun 23 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? Jun 23 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 23? Jun 22 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 23? Jun 21 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 22? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on June 22? Jun 20 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 20? Jun 19 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 18? Jun 17 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? Jun 14 $124 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,100 on June 13? Jun 12 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 12? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 11? Jun 10 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 11? Jun 09 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 11? Jun 08 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 5? Jun 04 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 5? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 5? Jun 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 01 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? Jun 01 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 01 $121 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 30 $121 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 30 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 30? May 29 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 29? May 27 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 28? May 26 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 27? May 26 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 25 $120 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24? May 24 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 24? May 23 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 22 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 22 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 23? May 21 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 21 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 21? May 20 $119 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $126 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $126 26h
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $42 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $84 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $70 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $126 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $126 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $125 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $125 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $125 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $65 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $61 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $125 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $75 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $125 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $35 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $90 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $125 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $27 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $98 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $27 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $98 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $125 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $125 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $124 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $110 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.40 · official $126.40 (match) · 293 history records