Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa8f…fd07 sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$550 (-8%) realized −$587 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%22W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$467
7 days−$60
14 days−$181
30 days−$763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$256
other 42% −$820
crypto 4% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 33% -11.7%
≤30d 75 -24.2% -31.5% 29% 29% -21.1%
≤90d 75 -24.2% -31.5% 29% 29% -21.1%
all 75 -24.2% -31.5% 29% 29% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 29% -21.1%
10% -38.0% 29% -28.7%
15% -44.0% 29% -35.6%
20% -49.5% 25% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$59 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$587
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses22 / 53
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 79
History coverage28d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 68¢ $95 $231 +$137 (+145%)
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $149 −$146 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $714 −$470 -66%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $473 +$259 +55%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $143 +$89 +62%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $57 +$184 +321%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 25 $153 −$96 -63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $202 −$198 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $58 −$57 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $102 +$201 +197%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $102 +$198 +194%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $61 −$60 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $99 +$244 +246%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $62 −$61 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $362 −$301 -83%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $267 +$95 +36%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$36 -70%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 +$71 +276%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $87 +$112 +128%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $96 +$85 +89%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $65 +$48 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 103.5 Jun 14 $88 −$50 -56%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $128 −$125 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $17 −$16 -97%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $149 −$20 -13%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $372 −$222 -60%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 123.5 Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $54 +$98 +180%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $102 +$146 +143%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $162 −$23 -14%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $118 −$59 -50%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 114.5 Jun 09 $151 −$151 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 09 $101 −$46 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 06 $52 −$5 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $95 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $97 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $149 23h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $244 24h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $714 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 29h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 29h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $731 29h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $473 30h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $232 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $241 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $57 2d
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 11¢ $57 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 61¢ $143 2d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 32¢ $202 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 27¢ $58 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 28¢ $31 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Czechia vs. Mex BUY 9¢ $21 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $303 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $51 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $300 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 33¢ $102 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3 BUY 9¢ $21 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $61 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $343 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $99 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.59 · official $231.59 (match) · 133 history records