Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa8d…04ed weather 156 markets active 2d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$273 (+43%) realized +$273 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate26%41W / 115L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$77
14 days+$249
30 days+$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% +$293
crypto 17% −$28
world 3% +$11
other 3% −$11
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -35.1% -41.2% 9% 5% -33.1%
≤30d 78 +31.1% +18.7% 26% 18% +3.6%
≤90d 146 -1.8% -11.1% 22% 15% -4.5%
all 156 +0.5% -9.1% 26% 19% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 19% -3.5%
10% -17.8% 13% -12.8%
15% -25.7% 12% -21.2%
20% -33.0% 9% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses41 / 115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage104d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -72%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$4 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 12 $0 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$5 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -83%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$7 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$7 -79%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$5 -50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$8 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -43%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on June Jun 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 74¢ $4 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 563 history records