Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AA 0xaa8c…999a crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,149per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 8 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,149
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $840 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $954 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2,175 +$3 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $2,090 +$3 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $1,080 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1,001 +$16 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $54 49m
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $900 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1,000 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $300 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $900 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1,000 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1,000 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,001 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $800 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records