Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa89…ccd2 sports 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$667 (-8%) realized −$656 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%94W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$20
14 days−$233
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$736
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.4% -11.7% 62% 62% -6.3%
≤30d 75 -0.9% -10.3% 61% 61% -10.8%
≤90d 169 -9.6% -18.2% 56% 56% -17.2%
all 169 -9.6% -18.2% 56% 56% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 56% -17.2%
10% -26.0% 56% -25.1%
15% -33.2% 53% -32.4%
20% -39.7% 39% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$48 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$656
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses94 / 75
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions4
Markets (closed)169 / 173
History coverage63d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 67¢ 73¢ $57 $62 +$5 (+9%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 66¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anastasia Gasanova Darja Semenistaja 54¢ 22¢ $28 $12 −$16 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $45 +$24 +52%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $35 +$24 +67%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 23 $24 −$24 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $83 +$28 +34%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $57 +$31 +55%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $29 −$29 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $52 +$28 +55%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $54 −$54 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $23 +$25 +105%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $37 +$23 +60%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $55 −$54 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $59 +$23 +40%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $37 +$23 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $77 −$76 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $82 −$81 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $60 +$28 +48%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$41 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $70 −$69 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $54 +$28 +52%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $54 +$27 +51%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $32 −$32 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $62 −$61 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $68 −$67 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $53 −$52 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $58 +$33 +56%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $57 +$23 +40%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 10 $61 +$29 +48%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $64 −$63 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $70 −$69 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $29 +$29 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch Jun 10 $33 +$28 +84%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 10 $32 +$28 +86%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $31 +$15 +48%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 09 $28 +$34 +119%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 09 $30 +$28 +91%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $48 +$27 +57%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $50 +$28 +57%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $68 −$67 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $44 −$43 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Lo Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $40 +$27 +67%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 07 $46 +$28 +62%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $64 −$63 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $55 −$54 -99%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $65 −$64 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $78 +$37 +48%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 06 $74 +$37 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $44 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Darja Semenistaja 54¢ $28 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $44 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $35 42h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $45 43h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 50¢ $24 43h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $83 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $42 4d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $15 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $29 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $54 5d
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 64¢ $52 5d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 47¢ $24 6d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $23 6d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 69¢ $55 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $59 7d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $61 7d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 62¢ $37 7d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $37 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $19 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $58 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $82 9d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 67¢ $60 10d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 59¢ $41 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $70 10d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 65¢ $54 12d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $32 13d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $62 13d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 66¢ $54 13d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $58 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.77 · official $156.07 · 276 history records