Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa88…0dd1 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized +$19 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day34.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$36
other 4% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -19.7% -27.4% 53% 47% -11.1%
≤30d 17 -19.7% -27.4% 53% 47% -11.1%
≤90d 17 -19.7% -27.4% 53% 47% -11.1%
all 17 -19.7% -27.4% 53% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 47% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 29% -19.6%
15% -40.7% 12% -27.4%
20% -46.5% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)17 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 30¢ $65 $42 −$23 (-35%)
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? Yes 62¢ 65¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Emam Ashour: 1+ goals Yes 24¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 $0 -7%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $41 −$38 -95%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $80 −$5 -7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $71 +$22 +30%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -93%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $27 +$12 +44%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $11 +$11 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $50 +$4 +7%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/ Jun 21 $2 $0 +23%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026 Jun 21 $3 $0 +11%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $2 +$1 +27%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND Will Jun 21 $2 $0 +14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 $0 +12%
John Yeboah: 2+ goals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Gonzalo Plata: 2+ goals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $66 1h
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will BUY 31¢ $10 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under $2 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $2 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over $2 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $41 6h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $55 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $92 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 32¢ $10 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $25 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND BUY 43¢ $10 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $71 10h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? SELL Yes $0 10h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams BUY 16¢ $5 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $27 21h
Japan to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 21h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $54 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $50 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/ SELL 53¢ $3 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026 SELL 18¢ $3 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 24¢ $3 22h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND Will SELL 53¢ $2 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 18¢ $2 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/ BUY 42¢ $2 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $2 22h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND Will BUY 45¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.37 · official $69.37 · 41 history records