Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa86…d75b crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (1130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,720 (+21%) realized +$3,720 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$1,446per market
Trades / day1130.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,720
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 42% +9.9%
≤30d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 42% +9.9%
≤90d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 42% +9.9%
all 12 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 42% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1130.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 42% +9.9%
10% -17.6% 42% -0.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.5% 33% -10.2%
20% -32.8% 33% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
94.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,624 vs −$1,004 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,446
Trades / day1130.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 30 $291 −$286 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 30 $176 −$166 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 30 $1,040 +$260 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 30 $338 −$333 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 30 $27 +$27 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 30 $3,765 +$3,890 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 30 $3,098 −$3,098 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 30 $3,535 +$72 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 30 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 30 $2,772 −$2,095 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $163 +$163 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $2,099 +$5,330 +254%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $15 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $0 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1138 history records