Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa85…ad98 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64 (-6%) realized −$60 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$85
other 39% −$4
sports 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 53 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 42% -20.4%
≤90d 53 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 42% -20.4%
all 53 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 42% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 42% -20.4%
10% -33.0% 40% -28.0%
15% -39.5% 36% -35.0%
20% -45.4% 34% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage18d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $95 $92 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 03 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 01 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$22 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 01 $21 +$33 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 31 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 31 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $15 +$13 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 31 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 31 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 31 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 31 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 31 $21 +$22 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $99 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $98 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $98 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $31 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.13 · official $381.13 (match) · 85 history records