Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:27:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa82…edc5 crypto 680 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$652 (-1%) realized −$652 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate88%598W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$136
14 days+$178
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,874
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +2.7% -7.0% 92% 41% -6.4%
≤30d 264 +0.2% -9.4% 89% 50% -11.2%
≤90d 680 -1.8% -11.2% 88% 49% -12.1%
all 680 -1.8% -11.2% 88% 49% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 49% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 3% -20.5%
15% -27.4% 0% -28.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$112 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$652
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses598 / 82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)680 / 680
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 680 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$4 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $150 +$23 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $150 +$17 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 22 $300 −$8 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET Jun 22 $90 +$20 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET Jun 21 $150 +$19 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET Jun 21 $180 +$9 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$4 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $150 +$21 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$10 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$11 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$2 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$4 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$8 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $150 +$31 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 18 $90 +$16 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$11 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $90 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $150 +$19 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $150 +$17 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $90 +$17 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $150 +$27 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $116 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records