Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa81…aaf7
other · 569 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,386 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,617 · open +$137
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$644
Realized−$1,617
Unrealized+$137
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses193 / 569
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions77
Markets (closed)762 / 569
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day715.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 77 History 762 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,248
7 days−$1,617
14 days−$1,617
30 days−$1,617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $4 $33 +$29 (+638%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Yes 5¢ 26¢ $5 $27 +$21 (+388%)
Will Cleveland Browns win the 2026 AFC North? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $1 $23 +$22 (+3750%)
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? No 36¢ 60¢ $13 $22 +$9 (+70%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Yes 3¢ 26¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+750%)
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $10B in 2026? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+85%)
Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes 21¢ 45¢ $7 $14 +$8 (+117%)
Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 29¢ 34¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+17%)
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? Yes 7¢ 17¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+143%)
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Elon Bull Run Parlay No 84¢ 94¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 84¢ 92¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? No 83¢ 87¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 84¢ 88¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 85¢ 89¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $9 $11 +$3 (+31%)
Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? No 70¢ 86¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+23%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%? No 82¢ 91¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? No 84¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+18%)
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30? No 81¢ 93¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $138 Week of May 4 20 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of May 4 2 Jun 13 $2 −$10 -623%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $156 in June? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Jeremiah Mensah: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 in June? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 2? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $4.45 by May 31? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of May 25 2026 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -88%
Mathieu Cafaro: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in June? Jun 13 $6 −$7 -101%
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +208%
Spread: Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sprinklr (CXM) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 13 $2 −$6 -398%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 700.0k by May 31? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 13 $12 −$2 -13%
Jan Urbich: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $129 Week of May 11 2 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $725 Week of May 4 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$11 -193%
Hugo Gonzalez: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of May 25 2026 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $390 Week of May 11 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $40B by December 31? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in May? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $650 Week of May 25 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: CA Grau (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Gwangju FC (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of May 4 202 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Guadalupe FC (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -102%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Raphael Guerreiro: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 13 $1 $0 -28%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in May? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $610 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Goncalo Guedes: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 13 $3 −$3 -112%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $442.50 Week of June 1 202 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $4.35 by May 31? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? Jun 13 $10 −$21 -207%
Lluc Castell: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of April 27 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$10 -165%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $630 Week of May 25 2026? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -80%
Spread: Universidad Central de Venezuela FC (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$211
tech 28% −$232
finance 15% −$6
politics 5% +$61
sports 3% −$5
world 2% −$11
culture 1% +$2
economics 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 44¢ $5 0m
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 45¢ $4 1m
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 44¢ $2 1m
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 6m
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 52¢ $5 10m
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? SELL No 51¢ $1 18m
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $1 18m
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 18m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 20m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 20m
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 47¢ $0 20m
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $1 20m
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 37¢ $7 29m
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 57¢ $5 34m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 34m
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 40¢ $2 38m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 19¢ $8 38m
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 43¢ $9 40m
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $12 47m
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 42¢ $4 47m
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 47m
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 51m
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 55m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 41¢ $9 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 28¢ $9 1h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 20¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 762 -25.5% -32.6% 25% 11% -22.8%
≤30d 762 -25.5% -32.6% 25% 11% -22.8%
≤90d 762 -25.5% -32.6% 25% 11% -22.8%
all 762 -25.5% -32.6% 25% 11% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover715.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.6% 11% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -39.0% 7% -30.2%
15% -44.9% 5% -37.0%
20% -50.3% 4% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $644.35 · official $644.37 (match) · 3500 history records