Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa81…5961 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$53
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$8
sports 37% −$7
crypto 11% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +41.9% +28.4% 50% 50% +15.5%
≤30d 31 +12.8% +2.1% 42% 42% -4.3%
≤90d 31 +12.8% +2.1% 42% 42% -4.3%
all 31 +12.8% +2.1% 42% 42% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 42% -4.3%
10% -7.7% 29% -13.4%
15% -16.6% 29% -21.8%
20% -24.8% 26% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage10d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$17 +68%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 +$4 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 +$11 +124%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$20 +388%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$45 +873%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$23 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 14h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 14h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 14h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $14 7d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 7d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 9d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records