Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AA 0xaa7f…3223 sports 1034 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,703 (-3%) realized −$6,703 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%494W / 537L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$1,306est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$192
14 days+$192
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$5,828
other 42% −$1,474
world 1% +$112
tech 0% −$228
politics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +36.1% +23.2% 60% 60% +24.4%
≤30d 17 +9.7% -0.8% 53% 53% +1.3%
≤90d 365 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 45% -10.4%
all 1031 -5.7% -14.7% 48% 42% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 42% -12.8%
10% -22.9% 36% -21.1%
15% -30.3% 29% -28.8%
20% -37.1% 22% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$80 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$6,703
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses494 / 537
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,306
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1031 / 1034
History coverage195d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1031 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 62¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $101 −$11 -11%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $51 −$13 -26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $51 +$40 +79%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $51 +$11 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$30 +59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$73 +123%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 20 $26 −$4 -14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $51 +$59 +116%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $41 +$9 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $31 −$2 -7%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $35 −$35 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $51 +$35 +70%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $51 +$36 +72%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? May 27 $63 −$62 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $61 +$38 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 22 $9 −$9 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $5 +$3 +52%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $10 +$11 +109%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 20 $10 +$8 +79%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $20 +$18 +90%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $41 −$20 -50%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $41 −$40 -98%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $41 −$40 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 18 $41 +$44 +108%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$8 +79%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $10 +$9 +89%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona May 17 $20 +$12 +59%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 17 $10 +$13 +123%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 17 $10 −$4 -41%
Basquet Club Andorra vs. Burgos May 17 $20 −$10 -49%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 17 $29 +$23 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 16 $32 −$22 -70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $10 +$7 +69%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 16 $11 +$8 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan SELL Benjamin Hassan 51¢ $47 32m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 23¢ $38 33m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 30¢ $51 40m
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Benjamin Hassan 54¢ $51 40m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart SELL Zeynep Sonmez 100¢ $91 45m
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan SELL Miguel Damas 48¢ $1 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 55¢ $51 1h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan SELL Miguel Damas 49¢ $43 1h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Miguel Damas 55¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund SELL Sara Bejlek 71¢ $62 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Sara Bejlek 57¢ $51 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $61 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 62¢ $51 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 43¢ $46 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 37¢ $76 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN SELL 11¢ $22 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 12¢ $26 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 46¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 SELL 21¢ $50 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $41 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- SELL 35¢ $28 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $31 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ $35 25d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $51 25d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 96¢ $72 25d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 89¢ $14 25d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $51 25d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ $51 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.52 · official $59.52 (match) · 2668 history records