Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AA 0xaa7f…e644 sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,467 (-69%) realized −$2,470 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$39
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2,502
sports 13% +$41
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.4% -12.6% 45% 45% -2.4%
≤30d 23 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 43% -3.0%
≤90d 27 -10.2% -18.8% 37% 37% -21.6%
all 28 -13.4% -21.7% 36% 36% -72.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 36% -72.9%
10% -29.2% 36% -75.5%
15% -36.0% 36% -77.9%
20% -42.3% 32% -80.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$148 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$2,470
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage555d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $26 −$3 -11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $7 +$4 +51%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $44 −$8 -18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 +$8 +52%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $11 −$6 -55%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $27 −$27 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 18 $37 +$29 +81%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $46 +$18 +38%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $38 −$37 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $16 +$28 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $27 +$31 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$25 +97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $36 +$35 +95%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 10 $67 −$6 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 10 $196 −$109 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 09 $201 −$24 -12%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 05 $256 −$60 -23%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 12 $2,303 −$2,303 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 2m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 54m
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $11 57m
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 58¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 54¢ $2 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 14¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 21¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 60¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 48¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 73¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 19¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 37¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 60¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 60¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $30 9h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY INOX Division 57¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 60¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL K27 59¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 60¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY INOX Division 58¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 60¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY INOX Division 58¢ $16 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.67 · official $50.67 · 96 history records