Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa7e…0332 other 422 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,257 (-5%) realized −$1,189 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%97W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,323
7 days+$1,274
14 days+$786
30 days+$2,688
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$1,110
sports 12% +$244
crypto 4% −$57
world 2% −$248
finance 2% +$21
politics 1% −$306
economics 0% +$10
tech 0% −$9
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +18.7% +7.4% 28% 28% +11.8%
≤30d 168 +38.4% +25.2% 27% 27% +2.5%
≤90d 352 -11.5% -19.9% 19% 18% -27.9%
all 406 -6.1% -15.0% 24% 22% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 22% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 22% -29.3%
15% -30.6% 21% -36.1%
20% -37.4% 20% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$45 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$502
Realized−$1,189
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses97 / 309
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions13
Markets (closed)406 / 422
History coverage104d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $42 $53 +$11 (+27%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $68 $49 −$19 (-28%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 42¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 34¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 22¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-29%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $41 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$28 +91%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $43 −$42 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$50 +99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 +$219 +710%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 +$20 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$73 +143%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Argent Jun 17 $10 +$75 +732%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 +$393 +1276%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +111%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 +$24 +20%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $82 +$261 +318%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $99 −$97 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $17 −$12 -71%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $29 −$13 -46%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $43 +$144 +337%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $31 +$24 +76%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $21 +$13 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $83 +$114 +137%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$573 +1115%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $91 +$129 +141%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $98 −$92 -94%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$79 +156%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 +$17 +82%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 +$15 +74%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 +$36 +71%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $43 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $58 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 21¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $101 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.86 · official $532.87 · 2872 history records