Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AA 0xaa7c…dad2 weather 324 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$100 (+0%) realized +$382 · open −$282
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%250W / 71L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$455per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$1,185
other 24% −$8,144
crypto 18% −$9,887
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 97 -18.5% -26.2% 80% 0% -23.9%
≤90d 321 -13.2% -21.5% 78% 0% -22.6%
all 321 -13.2% -21.5% 78% 0% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 0% -22.6%
10% -29.0% 0% -30.0%
15% -35.9% 0% -36.8%
20% -42.2% 0% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$561) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$276 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized+$382
Unrealized−$282
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses250 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)321 / 324
History coverage70d
Avg bet$455
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $559 $560 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in July 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $284 $0 −$283 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $591 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $440 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $151 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $590 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $589 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $341 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $588 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $545 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in July 2026? Jun 17 $582 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $587 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $586 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $585 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $583 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $584 −$292 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $583 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $473 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $473 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $330 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $251 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $581 −$291 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $565 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $580 −$290 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $364 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $580 −$290 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $244 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $579 −$290 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 08 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 7? Jun 07 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 7? Jun 07 $240 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $335 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $243 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $559 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $220 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $364 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $440 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $69 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $590 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $589 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $130 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $118 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $341 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $588 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $525 7d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $587 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $586 9d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $585 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? SELL No 0¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $584 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $584 10d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $584 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.61 · official $593.61 (match) · 1042 history records