Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AA 0xaa77…dad6 sports 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,103 (-9%) realized −$2,102 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 56L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$873
7 days−$412
14 days−$857
30 days−$857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$908
other 19% −$1,375
crypto 1% −$211
world 1% −$129
economics 0% −$99
tech 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +12.1% +1.4% 51% 51% -13.3%
≤30d 56 +13.8% +2.9% 50% 48% -15.7%
≤90d 56 +13.8% +2.9% 50% 48% -15.7%
all 90 -7.2% -16.0% 38% 37% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 37% -20.4%
10% -24.1% 36% -28.0%
15% -31.4% 33% -35.0%
20% -38.1% 29% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$306 vs −$235 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized−$2,102
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 94
History coverage240d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $396 $387 −$9 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $504 −$491 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $149 −$149 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,103 −$1,103 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $405 +$308 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $837 −$544 -65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$201 +197%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +94%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $253 +$166 +66%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $705 +$218 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $500 +$239 +48%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $204 +$296 +145%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $173 +$32 +18%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$40 +39%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $490 −$368 -75%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $61 −$5 -8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $203 +$151 +74%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $177 −$21 -12%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $602 +$197 +33%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $81 +$249 +308%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $40 −$11 -27%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $164 +$186 +113%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $102 +$198 +194%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $294 +$307 +104%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $204 +$95 +47%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 −$57 -94%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$237 +116%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$5 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$148 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $299 +$193 +64%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$54 +177%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $71 +$49 +68%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $58 +$67 +117%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $394 −$393 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $507 −$507 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$424 +414%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$106 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $99 +$132 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $400 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $713 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $405 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $293 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $837 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $303 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $0 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $150 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $269 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $253 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $0 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $102 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $923 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $705 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $500 32h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 88¢ $500 46h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $204 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 43¢ $204 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $173 47h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $141 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $594.36 · official $594.36 (match) · 308 history records