Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa75…d03e other 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$47
sports 25% −$22
politics 7% −$5
culture 7% −$10
economics 6% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage137d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $458 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $176 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $575 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $597 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $669 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $446 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $155 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $364 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $651 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $264 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 07 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $398 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $265 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $274 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $190 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $415 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $132 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $463 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $528 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $218 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $130 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $135 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $262 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 23m
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 7h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 8h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 14h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 16h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 20h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 22h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 26h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $54 29h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 29h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 31h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 32h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 33h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 39h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 41h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 42h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 44h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 47h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.32 · official $53.32 (match) · 1415 history records