Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa75…a864 crypto 564 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36,221 (+8%) realized +$27,296 · open +$8,925
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate94%471W / 28L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$826per market
Trades / day51.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$118,795now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$38,370
crypto 30% −$1,410
other 20% +$17,649
politics 4% −$1,284
culture 3% +$1,716
sports 3% +$584
finance 2% +$3,670
economics 1% +$321
tech 1% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +17.3% +6.1% 95% 29% -0.5%
≤30d 225 +7.1% -3.1% 92% 14% -4.0%
≤90d 499 +14.3% +3.4% 94% 12% +3.1%
all 499 +14.3% +3.4% 94% 12% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 12% +3.1%
10% -6.5% 6% -6.8%
15% ← realistic here -15.5% 4% -15.8%
20% -23.8% 3% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$758) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$519 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.61 per $1 lost it wins $4.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$118,795
Realized+$27,296
Unrealized+$8,925
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses471 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions76
Markets (closed)499 / 564
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$826
Trades / day51.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 86¢ $13,874 $16,993 +$3,119 (+22%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $10,126 $10,594 +$468 (+5%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $8,950 $9,788 +$838 (+9%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $8,554 $9,096 +$542 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $6,902 $7,272 +$370 (+5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 79¢ 100¢ $4,639 $5,877 +$1,239 (+27%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $4,649 $5,615 +$966 (+21%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 93¢ 94¢ $4,492 $4,531 +$38 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $3,917 $4,100 +$183 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 93¢ 99¢ $3,560 $3,818 +$258 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $3,551 $3,812 +$261 (+7%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $2,984 $3,192 +$208 (+7%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 95¢ 96¢ $2,263 $2,288 +$25 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 61¢ 83¢ $1,477 $2,006 +$529 (+36%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $1,992 $1,971 −$21 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,864 $1,925 +$61 (+3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $1,609 $1,683 +$74 (+5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 74¢ $1,650 $1,476 −$174 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $1,231 $1,404 +$173 (+14%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 50¢ $2,474 $1,396 −$1,078 (-44%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 45¢ 84¢ $659 $1,247 +$588 (+89%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,177 $1,244 +$67 (+6%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $909 $1,029 +$121 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 93¢ 98¢ $828 $869 +$42 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $844 $843 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 20 $220 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $2,208 +$194 +9%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $222 +$166 +75%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,489 +$11 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $211 +$9 +4%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $332 +$1 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $501 +$71 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $724 +$216 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $66 +$258 +393%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $319 +$14 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $527 +$705 +134%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $360 −$334 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,760 +$6 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $789 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $430 +$3 +1%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $81 +$30 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $553 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $517 +$2 +0%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 16 $243 −$188 -78%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 16 $320 +$9 +3%
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? Jun 16 $347 +$22 +6%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $620 +$46 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $2,350 +$449 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $727 +$3 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $1,388 +$55 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $791 +$23 +3%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 15 $74 +$1 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 +$9 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $195 +$27 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $370 +$7 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $500 +$110 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $141 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1,093 +$251 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +39%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $221 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $180 +$10 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $1,058 +$39 +4%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 14 $218 +$4 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $328 +$5 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $307 +$8 +3%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $311 +$22 +7%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $96 +$4 +5%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1,075 +$40 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $532 +$24 +4%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $421 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $237 −$234 -98%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $754 +$16 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 96¢ $73 41m
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $94 47m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $24 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 72¢ $160 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 73¢ $163 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 75¢ $167 1h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 96¢ $172 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $428 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $88 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $57 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $154 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $57 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $211 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $316 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $538 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 74¢ $313 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $292 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $89 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 12h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 46¢ $52 12h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $8 13h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 95¢ $213 15h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $329 15h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 95¢ $4 16h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 95¢ $4 17h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 96¢ $214 17h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 17h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 46¢ $46 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118,795.20 · official $118,797.06 (match) · 3500 history records