Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:14:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa75…21c2 crypto 659 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,690 (-4%) realized −$1,685 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%426W / 232L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$406
14 days−$698
30 days−$596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$1,974
finance 8% +$59
other 1% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 +2.1% -7.6% 71% 71% -18.7%
≤30d 642 -0.6% -10.1% 65% 64% -13.1%
≤90d 658 -0.6% -10.0% 65% 64% -15.3%
all 658 -0.6% -10.0% 65% 64% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 64% -15.3%
10% -18.6% 59% -23.4%
15% -26.5% 47% -30.8%
20% -33.7% 31% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$46 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,685
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses426 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)658 / 659
History coverage50d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 658 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 50¢ 40¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 227 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.77 · official $22.27 · 1340 history records