Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa6f…01c2 weather 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$151 (-3%) realized −$112 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 61% −$169
other 16% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 9% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -8.5% -17.3% 3% 2% -14.2%
≤30d 60 -8.5% -17.3% 3% 2% -14.2%
≤90d 60 -8.5% -17.3% 3% 2% -14.2%
all 60 -8.5% -17.3% 3% 2% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 2% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 2% -22.4%
15% -32.4% 2% -29.9%
20% -39.0% 2% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -77% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)60 / 65
History coverage7d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 90¢ 74¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-18%)
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 80¢ 6¢ $40 $3 −$37 (-93%)
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 96¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pigeons Win North America ACE Stage 3 Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Malte Gustafsson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $20 $0 -1%
Will Ryan Lin be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $108 −$38 -35%
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will Evictix Win North America ACE Stage 3 Jun 26 $120 $0 -0%
Will Mathis Preston be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? Jun 26 $169 −$5 -3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $362 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 25 $312 −$12 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $862 −$56 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? Jun 25 $472 −$72 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $73 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 25? Jun 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 24 $53 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 24 $42 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 23 $103 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $156 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $52 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pigeons Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 90¢ $9 15m
Will Malte Gustafsson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $19 21m
Will Malte Gustafsson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22m
Will Ryan Lin be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 98¢ $39 45m
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 90¢ $63 52m
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 53m
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY No 96¢ $95 1h
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Tynan Lawrence be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 1h
Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 1h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 3¢ $6 1h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY No 96¢ $76 1h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 97¢ $194 1h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will Division One Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY No 96¢ $115 1h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY No 96¢ $96 2h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2h
Will Evictix Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY No 97¢ $97 2h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY No 96¢ $96 2h
Will Alliance Guardians Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.83 · official $10.35 (match) · 339 history records