Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AA 0xaa6f…1dfe sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,617 (+17%) realized +$14,269 · open −$652
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$2,215per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$954est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$11,348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13,786
7 days+$11,136
14 days+$15,681
30 days+$15,681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$18,713
world 14% −$4,986
other 9% −$603
politics 1% −$958
crypto 1% −$435
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +25.3% +13.4% 62% 62% +10.3%
≤30d 18 +6.5% -3.6% 50% 50% +16.3%
≤90d 29 -7.7% -16.5% 38% 38% +7.3%
all 34 -15.1% -23.2% 35% 35% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 35% +6.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 32% -3.6%
15% -37.3% 32% -12.9%
20% -43.4% 32% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,975) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -43% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,283 vs −$1,229 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$11,348
Realized+$14,269
Unrealized−$652
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$954
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage124d
Avg bet$2,215
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $5,000 $5,111 +$111 (+2%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $5,000 $4,951 −$49 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,000 $1,286 −$714 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $2,550 +$5,026 +197%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $2,550 −$2,500 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,016 +$1,144 +112%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $7,088 +$4,981 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $5,069 +$4,190 +83%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5,073 −$5,000 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5,079 +$5,559 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $4,999 +$5,175 +104%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5,034 −$4,933 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5,058 −$5,000 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,085 +$3,078 +60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $1,553 −$1,528 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $2,975 +$5,604 +188%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $498 −$498 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 21 $194 −$17 -9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 21 $1,512 −$1,152 -76%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $1,021 −$400 -39%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $2,560 −$1,607 -63%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 21 $1,485 −$870 -59%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 12 $858 −$858 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $1,498 −$537 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $996 −$996 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $2,632 +$2,035 +77%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $998 +$1,634 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 19 $144 −$142 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 19 $121 +$23 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 18 $99 −$99 -99%
Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 2.5 Feb 18 $111 −$12 -11%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 4AM ET Feb 18 $217 −$217 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $5,057 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2,550 5h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $2,550 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5,073 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1,016 23h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 23h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1,015 23h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $7,088 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $5,069 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5,073 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $5,079 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $4,999 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5,034 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $2,023 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $1,012 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $1,012 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $1,012 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1,024 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4,061 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $304 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $102 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 46¢ $130 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $508 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $508 6d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $2,975 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $274 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,348.08 · official $11,348.08 (match) · 181 history records