Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AA 0xaa6c…a9b3 sports 918 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29,611 (-5%) realized −$26,884 · open −$2,727
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%483W / 430L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$644per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$6,174est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,126
7 days−$22,761
14 days−$17,021
30 days−$27,092
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$14,257
crypto 5% −$11,683
other 4% −$5,643
world 1% −$5,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -3.9% -13.0% 57% 56% -21.8%
≤30d 225 -10.0% -18.6% 53% 53% -20.7%
≤90d 864 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 52% -15.4%
all 913 -8.4% -17.1% 53% 52% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 52% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 51% -22.9%
15% -32.3% 44% -30.4%
20% -38.9% 32% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$624) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$435 vs −$567 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$1,472
Realized−$26,884
Unrealized−$2,727
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses483 / 430
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$6,174
Open positions5
Markets (closed)913 / 918
History coverage99d
Avg bet$644
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 913 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 54¢ 56¢ $1,000 $1,024 +$24 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Team Nemesis 55¢ 48¢ $500 $445 −$55 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 49¢ 0¢ $1,700 $2 −$1,698 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner K27 27¢ 0¢ $498 $1 −$498 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs DXA Esports 55¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,022 +$959 +32%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $305 −$302 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $503 +$131 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $504 +$159 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $1,008 +$349 +35%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $2,529 +$1,644 +65%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $507 +$489 +96%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $503 +$148 +29%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $596 −$586 -98%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $503 +$141 +28%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $504 +$171 +34%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $508 +$607 +120%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $504 +$171 +34%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $559 −$550 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $2,087 −$2,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2,038 −$44 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4,072 +$594 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $4,045 −$2,000 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3,042 −$850 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,528 −$151 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $811 −$300 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $613 +$161 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $814 +$204 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $310 +$143 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $307 +$125 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,076 −$5,000 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,019 −$2,000 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5,041 +$1,843 +37%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $203 +$198 +98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6,773 +$9,061 +134%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $305 +$430 +141%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12,127 −$12,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4,063 −$4,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7,089 +$5,105 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $202 +$84 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $190 −$186 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6,086 +$5,368 +88%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $284 +$92 +32%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,023 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $328 −$322 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$473 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 55¢ $507 19m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $1,014 19m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 22¢ $205 53m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 65¢ $505 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 42¢ $305 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 18¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 55¢ $507 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 56¢ $1,013 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,980 14h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 42¢ $203 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $204 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,011 14h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $305 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $634 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $663 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $1,357 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 79¢ $503 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 75¢ $504 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $1,008 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $507 18h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 100¢ $4,173 19h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 100¢ $996 19h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 100¢ $651 19h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 65¢ $1,010 20h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 50¢ $507 20h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 65¢ $1,011 20h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 77¢ $503 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,471.77 · official $1,503.88 · 1815 history records