Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa69…3b00
crypto · 574 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$289 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$289 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$289
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses255 / 319
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)574 / 574
History coverage103d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 574 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$19
14 days−$21
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$6 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -18%
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +69%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -15%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +260%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +106%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 07 $7 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 05 $3 $0 -15%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +99%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 31 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$242
world 5% −$15
finance 2% −$14
politics 1% −$19
other 1% +$5
sports 1% −$7
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 27% -17.6%
≤30d 100 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 28% -21.2%
≤90d 416 -7.0% -15.9% 44% 29% -15.7%
all 574 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 31% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 31% -14.9%
10% -23.6% 22% -23.1%
15% -31.0% 15% -30.5%
20% -37.8% 11% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2177 history records