Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaa68…8d45 sports 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$906 (+11%) realized +$472 · open +$434
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$455
7 days+$629
14 days+$440
30 days+$1,340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$220
other 27% +$824
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +67.5% +51.6% 88% 88% +44.6%
≤30d 21 +17.5% +6.3% 57% 57% +44.0%
≤90d 69 +1.3% -8.3% 43% 41% -2.1%
all 69 +1.3% -8.3% 43% 41% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 41% -2.1%
10% -17.1% 36% -11.4%
15% -25.1% 33% -20.0%
20% -32.5% 28% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$76 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$600
Realized+$472
Unrealized+$434
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 39
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions4
Markets (closed)69 / 77
History coverage81d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ $50 $563 +$513 (+1027%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $59 $34 −$26 (-43%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $2 −$18 (-92%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $1 −$36 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $202 +$38 +19%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $131 +$117 +89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $231 +$300 +130%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $31 +$21 +68%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $256 +$103 +40%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $48 +$51 +105%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $52 +$98 +189%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $49 −$47 -97%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals Jun 19 $49 −$48 -97%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $79 −$77 -98%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 18 $32 +$27 +84%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $44 −$43 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $156 +$158 +101%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $99 −$97 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $48 −$43 -90%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $205 +$656 +321%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $203 +$73 +36%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $237 +$174 +73%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $111 −$109 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $508 −$500 -98%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 May 13 $152 −$64 -42%
Josko Gvardiol: Anytime Goalscorer May 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 1 Crystal Palace FC? May 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 2 Crystal Palace FC? May 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 3 Crystal Palace FC? May 13 $19 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Southampton FC 2 - 0 Middlesbrough FC? May 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Southampton FC 1 - 1 Middlesbrough FC? May 12 $51 +$305 +596%
Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 May 12 $152 +$67 +44%
Exact Score: Southampton FC 3 - 3 Middlesbrough FC? May 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 May 11 $90 −$75 -83%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 11 $125 −$123 -98%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 11 $150 −$150 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu May 10 $99 −$73 -73%
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? May 10 $102 +$109 +107%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 10 $69 +$163 +237%
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 10 $41 −$40 -97%
Morgan Gibbs-White: Anytime Goalscorer May 10 $49 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 2 - 2 Newcastle United FC? May 10 $50 −$49 -97%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? May 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 09 $60 −$59 -98%
Manchester United FC leading at halftime? May 09 $79 −$78 -98%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 08 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $102 +$192 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $240 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $248 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $202 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $131 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 94¢ $531 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 48¢ $131 24h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $20 42h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $52 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $359 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $61 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $48 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 83¢ $150 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $52 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $52 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $49 10d
Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals BUY Yes $49 10d
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 31¢ $79 10d
Jonathan David: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $59 10d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? SELL Yes $0 10d
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $32 10d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes $18 10d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY 16¢ $103 10d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $44 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $314 10d
Edin Džeko: 3+ shots AND Jonathan David: 4+ shots BUY 13¢ $97 11d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia BUY 13¢ $101 11d
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $99 11d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $156 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $599.63 · official $599.63 (match) · 134 history records