Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa67…db64 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+5%) realized +$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$232
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -38.8% -44.7% 45% 36% -38.0%
≤30d 11 -38.8% -44.7% 45% 36% -38.0%
≤90d 11 -38.8% -44.7% 45% 36% -38.0%
all 11 -38.8% -44.7% 45% 36% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.7% 36% -38.0%
10% -50.0% 18% -44.0%
15% -54.8% 9% -49.4%
20% -59.2% 0% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$52 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $133 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.38 · official $9.38 (match) · 20 history records