Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa65…1021 sports 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9,710 (+8%) realized +$9,696 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%75W / 59L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$882per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2,074now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,208
7 days−$1,060
14 days−$1,225
30 days−$1,153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$12,178
sports 45% −$3,878
world 1% −$80
tech 1% −$8
crypto 1% −$529
economics 1% −$26
politics 0% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -17.4% -25.2% 50% 25% -18.0%
≤30d 9 -23.8% -31.0% 56% 22% -17.3%
≤90d 120 -23.9% -31.1% 54% 35% -16.5%
all 134 -15.8% -23.8% 56% 35% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 35% -4.0%
10% -31.1% 20% -13.2%
15% -37.8% 17% -21.6%
20% -43.9% 11% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,098) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$396 vs −$383 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$2,074
Realized+$9,696
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses75 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage183d
Avg bet$882
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $2,059 $2,074 +$14 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,232 −$2,200 -99%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 26 $1,002 −$8 -1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 24 $4,995 +$429 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,163 +$719 +23%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $167 −$165 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $731 +$63 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $487 +$213 +44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $229 −$220 -96%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $482 +$17 +4%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $989 +$209 +21%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $774 +$1,205 +156%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,113 −$3,100 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 22 $1,875 −$1,856 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) May 22 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $5,433 +$861 +16%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $714 +$85 +12%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $4,266 +$429 +10%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2,473 +$524 +21%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $285 +$215 +76%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $550 +$150 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $541 −$536 -99%
Will SC Braga vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw? May 03 $180 +$20 +11%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1,641 −$1,618 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 02 $353 +$146 +41%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,013 +$186 +18%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,158 +$235 +20%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $996 +$34 +3%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $268 −$268 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 01 $549 +$150 +27%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1,051 −$1,035 -99%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Emilio Nava Apr 26 $503 +$79 +16%
Will SC União Torreense vs. AD Fafe end in a draw? Apr 23 $100 −$98 -98%
Set Handicap: Aguilar (-1.5) vs Trungelliti (+1.5) Apr 23 $194 −$194 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dusan Lajovic vs Matteo Arnaldi Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 23 $170 −$170 -100%
Madrid Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Dusan Lajovic Apr 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? Apr 23 $760 −$760 -100%
LoL: RMD Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Apr 23 $412 −$412 -100%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 23 $5,370 −$151 -3%
Set Handicap: Bergs (-1.5) vs Cilic (+1.5) Apr 23 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid Open: Alycia Parks vs Ann Li Apr 23 $270 −$267 -99%
Madrid Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Grigor Dimitrov Apr 23 $300 −$296 -98%
Madrid Open: Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baez Apr 23 $200 −$198 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $462 +$37 +8%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 22 $200 +$79 +40%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Tyra Caterina Grant Apr 21 $950 +$48 +5%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Jaime Faria vs Lloyd Harris Apr 21 $117 −$117 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,533 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $597 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,077 16h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL No 77¢ $973 28h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND N BUY $100 28h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL No 79¢ $20 28h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 83¢ $249 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 79¢ $319 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 71¢ $434 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,416 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,009 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $629 11d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $167 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $794 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 92¢ $612 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 92¢ $115 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 92¢ $5 20d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 69¢ $487 21d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $291 21d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $63 21d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,180 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $62 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $166 25d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $499 25d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,199 30d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 82¢ $989 30d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,979 31d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $774 31d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,073.50 · official $2,073.50 (match) · 559 history records