trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 16 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 31% | 31% | -27.3% |
| ≤30d | 25 | -0.8% | -10.3% | 40% | 24% | -27.7% |
| ≤90d | 28 | -0.6% | -10.0% | 43% | 21% | -26.9% |
| all | 28 | -0.6% | -10.0% | 43% | 21% | -26.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.0% | 21% | -26.9% |
| 10% | -18.6% | 21% | -33.9% |
| 15% | -26.5% | 21% | -40.3% |
| 20% | -33.7% | 18% | -46.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | Yes | 1¢ | 6¢ | $20 | $108 | +$88 (+440%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 69¢ | 68¢ | $43 | $42 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 16 | $51 | −$9 | -17% |
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $63 | −$62 | -98% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 16 | $68 | −$4 | -7% |
| Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $60 | +$111 | +185% |
| Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $17 | +$43 | +246% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $44 | −$27 | -61% |
| Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $30 | +$14 | +46% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $75 | −$45 | -60% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $20 | +$33 | +162% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $146 | −$146 | -100% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $92 | +$105 | +114% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? | Jun 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? | Jun 13 | $113 | −$113 | -100% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? | Jun 12 | $50 | −$5 | -10% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? | Jun 12 | $62 | −$14 | -23% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? | Jun 06 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | May 29 | $21 | −$4 | -19% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 24 | $9 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 24 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 24 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 22 | $20 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? | May 19 | $11 | +$10 | +97% |
| Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | May 18 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17? | May 18 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 17 | $20 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $17 | +$1 | +3% |