Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AA 0xaa64…9dcd sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-2%) realized −$46 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -22.2% -29.6% 62% 62% -18.8%
≤30d 8 -22.2% -29.6% 62% 62% -18.8%
≤90d 8 -22.2% -29.6% 62% 62% -18.8%
all 8 -22.2% -29.6% 62% 62% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 62% -18.8%
10% -36.4% 50% -26.6%
15% -42.5% 0% -33.7%
20% -48.2% 0% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$100 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,761
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions11
Markets (closed)8 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) New York Yankees 75¢ 74¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 82¢ $225 $221 −$4 (-2%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 64¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 86¢ $175 $174 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Over 82¢ 82¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 77¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ 79¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 81¢ $125 $129 +$4 (+3%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $125 $123 −$2 (-1%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 Under 78¢ 76¢ $125 $123 −$2 (-2%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 Under 78¢ 76¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 20 $176 +$54 +31%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $201 +$22 +11%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 20 $201 +$46 +23%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 20 $126 +$34 +27%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$31 +31%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 19 $126 −$125 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $76 −$75 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $151 19m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $202 19m
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 75¢ $252 33m
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 78¢ $126 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 69¢ $126 1h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 78¢ $126 17h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 76¢ $176 17h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 81¢ $201 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 82¢ $126 18h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 19h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $151 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $176 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $226 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $151 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $126 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $76 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $201 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,760.87 · official $1,760.89 (match) · 24 history records