Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa64…0c69 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$605 (+16%) realized +$605 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$900
other 45% −$290
sports 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -11.2% -19.7% 42% 42% +9.4%
≤30d 12 -11.2% -19.7% 42% 42% +9.4%
≤90d 12 -11.2% -19.7% 42% 42% +9.4%
all 12 -11.2% -19.7% 42% 42% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 42% +9.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 33% -1.1%
15% -34.4% 33% -10.7%
20% -40.8% 25% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$103 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$605
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $203 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $516 +$411 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,691 −$290 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$157 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $208 −$166 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $752 +$742 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $198 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 43m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $101 46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $1,401 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 53m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,589 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records