Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AA 0xaa61…8f6b crypto 501 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,241 (+10%) realized +$1,250 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%208W / 292L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$321
7 days+$1,010
14 days+$1,190
30 days+$1,390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,373
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -7.8% -16.6% 37% 37% +9.0%
≤30d 458 -5.0% -14.0% 42% 42% +1.4%
≤90d 500 -1.6% -11.0% 42% 41% +0.8%
all 500 -1.6% -11.0% 42% 41% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 41% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 40% -8.8%
15% -27.3% 34% -17.6%
20% -34.4% 27% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$14 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$1,250
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses208 / 292
Open positions1
Markets (closed)500 / 501
History coverage33d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 500 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 45¢ 84¢ $108 $203 +$95 (+88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 31¢ 16¢ $19 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 271 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$44 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $68 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $69 −$9 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $66 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $72 +$168 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $64 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $87 +$153 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $73 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $63 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $63 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $85 +$35 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $91 −$87 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $67 −$64 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $80 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $93 +$147 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $73 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $87 +$153 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $88 +$152 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $134 +$166 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $64 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $76 +$44 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$59 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $69 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$25 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $29 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$27 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $19 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $8 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $50 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.10 · official $204.90 · 980 history records