Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaa5d…9bdc crypto 247 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$499 (-9%) realized −$498 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%86W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$142
14 days−$24
30 days−$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$416
sports 44% +$206
other 5% −$238
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +14.7% +3.8% 46% 44% -5.2%
≤30d 242 -14.1% -22.3% 36% 35% -17.3%
≤90d 242 -14.1% -22.3% 36% 35% -17.3%
all 242 -14.1% -22.3% 36% 35% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 35% -17.3%
10% -29.8% 34% -25.2%
15% -36.5% 33% -32.4%
20% -42.8% 33% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$498
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses86 / 156
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)242 / 247
History coverage30d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $515 +$87 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$20 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $85 −$58 -68%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$4 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $104 +$47 +46%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 +$6 +93%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$6 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$21 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$121 +767%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $31 −$9 -30%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$20 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $218 −$215 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$18 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$15 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$7 +238%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 +$5 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$24 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 86¢ $502 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 7¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 11h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $6 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND E BUY 35¢ $10 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $28 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $4 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $76 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.29 · official $5.29 (match) · 508 history records