Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AA 0xaa5d…167f other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,754 (+15%) realized +$8,352 · open −$3,598
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$6,286per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 235d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$4,299
sports 31% −$2,725
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +21.9% +10.3% 100% 100% +6.8%
≤30d 2 +21.9% +10.3% 100% 100% +6.8%
≤90d 2 +21.9% +10.3% 100% 100% +6.8%
all 4 +2.9% -6.9% 75% 75% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 75% +9.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 50% -0.8%
15% -24.0% 25% -10.3%
20% -31.4% 0% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,215 vs −$1,473 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.51 per $1 lost it wins $4.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$8,352
Unrealized−$3,598
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage235d
Avg bet$6,286
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 77¢ 0¢ $3,600 $2 −$3,598 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,699 +$873 +32%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $5,928 +$683 +12%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $13,551 +$5,089 +38%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $2,108 −$1,473 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 92¢ $601 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 10¢ $255 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 19¢ $304 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 26¢ $74 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 75¢ $3,022 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $3,521 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $2,699 26h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 83¢ $2,703 27h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,011 27d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,448 28d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,448 28d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 103d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 68¢ $927 103d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 69¢ $5,000 103d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL No 0¢ $6 232d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL No 0¢ $12 232d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL No 14¢ $140 233d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL No 14¢ $40 233d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL No 14¢ $27 233d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL No 14¢ $3 233d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL No 16¢ $316 233d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL No 9¢ $85 234d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL No 9¢ $5 234d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL No 9¢ $0 234d
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 75¢ $3,400 234d
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 71¢ $19 234d
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 71¢ $57 234d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 24¢ $333 234d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 21¢ $805 234d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 19¢ $537 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.33 · official $2.33 (match) · 39 history records