Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaa5c…f4b5 crypto 1232 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$123 (-3%) realized −$124 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate76%930W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day75.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$60
14 days−$129
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$123
other 33% −$54
sports 2% +$10
politics 1% +$20
world 0% −$14
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 735 -7.6% -16.4% 75% 39% -11.8%
≤30d 1229 -6.6% -15.5% 76% 37% -13.4%
≤90d 1229 -6.6% -15.5% 76% 37% -13.4%
all 1229 -6.6% -15.5% 76% 37% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 37% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 20% -21.7%
15% -31.0% 11% -29.3%
20% -37.8% 6% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses930 / 299
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1229 / 1232
History coverage21d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day75.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 0¢ 66¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 62¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$2 +27%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$4 -36%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +68%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 -14%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$2 -13%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$3 +32%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$1 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$11 +52%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 -5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 -1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$1 -11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +18%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$2 +37%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +36%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 10m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 19m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 20m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 20m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 21m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 24m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 53¢ $9 25m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 26m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 28m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 29m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $12 41m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 42m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 58m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.03 · official $11.63 (match) · 2813 history records