Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:28:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa5c…7cbc other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$70 (-7%) realized +$30 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$15
sports 48% −$184
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -17.3% -25.1% 38% 25% -28.0%
≤90d 8 -17.3% -25.1% 38% 25% -28.0%
all 15 -17.3% -25.2% 40% 33% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 33% -19.5%
10% -32.3% 33% -27.2%
15% -38.9% 27% -34.2%
20% -44.9% 20% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$30 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage111d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 28¢ 22¢ $200 $161 −$39 (-20%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 10¢ 6¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-35%)
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Japan 0¢ 0¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $106 −$58 -54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$19 +185%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $80 +$27 +33%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $50 +$44 +89%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $50 +$78 +157%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 0¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 10¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $204 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 27¢ $49 14d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $106 14d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 15d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 18d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 20d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 20d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 20d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 20d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 108d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $80 108d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 109d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 109d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $5 110d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 110d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.13 · official $200.13 (match) · 26 history records